Happy Holidays to you and yours from the Tuley’s Takes home office. We got off to a great start in NFL Week 15 with the Rams +9 kicking off the first leg of our “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” with a 12-6 outright upset at the 49ers on Thursday Night Football. In Sunday’s early game, we felt good about our top play, Saints +7.5 vs. the Commanders, and they held on to cover in their 20-19 loss where they had a chance to win on a late 2-point conversion but failed. However, we lost with the Jaguars +3 vs. the Jets and Giants +16.5 vs. the Ravens in other early games, fell short with the Steelers +5 at the Eagles in the afternoon and the Bears +7 at the Vikings on Monday night to go a disappointing 1-4 ATS.Week 15 was a tough slate to find live underdogs as favorites dominated 12-4 straight-up and 10-6 against the spread. At least our “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” saved us again as we also hit our 2-team, 6-point teasers using the Dolphins +8.5 at the Texans, Cowboys +8.5 at the Panther and Bills +8.5 at the Lions during the day, though the Seahawks +9 vs. the Packers kept us from getting another TTF sweep as they lost 30-13 on Sunday Night Football.
For those curious, my ViewFromVegas NFL Betting Stats (also posted weekly @ViewFromVegas and often quoted in the VSiN Daily Newsletter) have favorites holding a narrow lead on the season at 111-104-6 ATS (51.6%) with three games closing pick ’em.
I often discuss here how I don’t put as much stock in home-field advantage these days, and that’s been backed up by road teams going 10-6 ATS in Week 5 and improving to 116-97-6 ATS (54.5%). Overs went 7-8-1 to dip below overall profitability at 114-106-4 (52.5%).
But enough looking back (except to learn from our mistakes). Let’s get to our takes for NFL Week 16, which has an added wrinkle with two games on Saturday. For newbies to these Tuley’s Takes columns, I’ll go over each game and try to come up with my Best Bet, but remember that “pass” is a legit option if there’s no value in the point spread. You don’t have to bet every game! However, I also give the aforementioned “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” of 2-team, 6-point teasers and my patent-pending “Pool Play Percentages” for those in contests where you do have to pick every game.
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ETThe Thursday nighter gives us a nice matchup of AFC West rivals. The Broncos (9-5) and Chargers (8-6) aren’t going to catch the Chiefs in the division race, but they’re currently solidly in the AFC wild-card slots. The Chargers won the first meeting 23-16 in Denver after building a 20-0 halftime lead and coasting in the second half, but the Broncos are 6-2 since that loss, and I expect this to be closer throughout.
I’m not willing to take Denver ATS at such a low spread, but I love that we can kick off our “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” like we did last week with the Rams. We’ll tease the Broncos through the key numbers of 3 and 7 to +8.5 and use them as the first leg of 2-team, 6-point teasers with our other Week 16 recommended dogs in the “teaser zone”: Seahawks +9 vs. the Vikings and Jaguars +7.5 at the Raiders. For those who like our chalk teaser options, this week’s plays would be the Bengals -1.5 vs. the Browns and Falcons -2.5 vs. the Giants.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Broncos +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Broncos 55/45 in our rare ATS contests that use Thursday night games, but Chargers still 60/40 in SU pools).
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5)
Saturday, 1 p.m. ETThis line has had a lot of interest this week after Patrick Mahomes suffered a high ankle sprain on Sunday and the Chiefs trying to hold onto the No. 1 seed in the AFC while the Texans are trying to improve their playoff seeding. The Texans actually opened -2.5 on Sunday afternoon with early reports that Mahomes might not be ready to play, but favoritism has flipped as he is now expected to suit up. I actually welcome that as I was proud I resisted fading the Chiefs on Sunday vs. the Browns after cashing against them so much this season and can now fade them with a hungry Houston team (and who knows if Mahomes is limited, reaggravates his injury or could be pulled as a precautionary measure). Regardless, the Chiefs are usually guilty of letting teams stick around, so this could easily come down to a field goal.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Texans +3.5 (pool play: Texans 60/40 in ATS contests, but Chiefs still 65/35 in SU pools).
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-6)
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ETThe special Saturday afternoon game featured an AFC North battle with the Ravens favored by nearly a TD despite the Steelers trying to wrap up the division title after winning the first meeting 18-16 in Week 11 as 3-point home underdogs. I usually love dogs in rematches if they have already shown that they can beat the other team, but this number is too low for me to take with the Ravens, who look like they’re getting better at the right time. The Steelers were +7 last week, and when the line re-opened on Sunday, I wish I had grabbed it then, but I’m passing now.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Steelers 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Ravens 70/30 in SU pools).
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ETThe Browns (3-11) have been a mixed bag for yours truly this season, as they’ve cashed for me a couple of times but also disappointed me (which is why I didn’t take them against the Chiefs on Sunday). Now, they’re benching Jameis Winston for Dorian Thompson-Robinson. While I believe DTR has some upside in the long term, I’m not willing to back him in his first NFL start.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Bengals 55/45 in ATS contests and 80/20 in SU pools).
Detroit Lions (-6.5) at Chicago Bears
Sunday, 1 p.m. ETSpeaking of teams that have let me down, the Bears failed to come through for me the past two weeks after firing head coach Matt Ebrerflus. Usually a team gets a boost after such a move, but the Bears barely showed up in blowout losses at the 49ers and Vikings. Since the Bears actually were competitive as covered as 10-point dogs in their 23-20 Thanksgiving loss at Detroit that prompted the firing, I would usually like them in the rematch, but this number is too short. Seriously, who bet this down from Lions -7 to -6.5? Hard pass.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Lions 55/45 in ATS contests and at least 85/15 in SU pools).
Arizona Cardinals (-4.5) at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, 1 p.m. ETIt seems like yesterday that the Cardinals (7-7) were leading the NFC West, but now they’re a game behind the co-leading Rams and Seahawks. They did take care of business in a 30-17 win vs. the Patriots on Sunday, but I’m willing to fade them with the Panthers here. Carolina (3-11) has been surprisingly competitive the past month and a half with wins over the Saints and Giants, plus covering in losses vs. the Chiefs, Buccaneers and Eagles before losing 30-14 vs. the Cowboys on Sunday. But I can forgive them for that, as they were 2.5-point favorites, and bad teams usually fail when put in that role. I look for a close game like they gave better teams in Kansas City, Tampa Bay and Philadelphia.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Panthers +4.5 (pool play: Panthers 60/40 in ATS contests, but Cardinals still 67/33 in SU pools).
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-14)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ETRegular readers know we don’t blindly play double-digit NFL dogs like we used to, but I like the Patriots in this spot. Granted, they’ve been blown out by two touchdowns several times this season (by the Jets, 49ers, Texans, Jaguars and Dolphins). The Bills are certainly capable of doing the same in this late first meeting between AFC East rivals, but with Buffalo already clinching the division, there’s no real incentive for them to win this by a big margin. They’re still hoping to catch the Chiefs for the first-round bye if they stumble, but it’s not likely, so we’ll count on the Patriots being able to stick around and even if they fall behind big, the backdoor cover should be open with this huge spread.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Patriots +14 (pool play: Patriots 60/40 in ATS contest, but Bills still at least 90/10 in SU pools).
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at Washington Commanders
Sunday, 1 p.m. ETA lot of people have been looking forward to this NFC East rematch, with the Commanders (9-5) getting to face the Eagles (12-2) at home after Philly won the first meeting 26-18. I’m not as sold on the Commanders, plus I’m not thrilled with the short number. I mean, I’m glad I faded the Eagles with the Panthers +14 two weeks ago and covered, but the Eagles were clearly looking past lowly Carolina in that game and has been probably the best team in the league since that earlier meeting with a rout of the Rams and solid wins against better teams in the Ravens and Steelers. I like several dogs much better this week.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Eagles 55/45 in ATS contests and 75/25 in SU pools).
New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons (-8.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ETThe Giants really let me down on Sunday despite getting 16.5 points at the Ravens. The Falcons are certainly not the Ravens, and they have now benched Kirk Cousins in favor of rookie Michael Penix, but I still can’t trust the G-men to show up this week. Instead, as mentioned earlier, I’m using the Falcons in my “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio,” moving the line down through the TD and FG.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Falcons -2.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Falcons 55/45 in ATS contests and at least 85/15 in SU pools).
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ETThe Titans are a woeful 3-11 on the season, but I would normally have liked them in this spot getting more than a field goal against a division rival that isn’t significantly better as the Colts are 6-6 (especially with the first meeting being decided by just a field goal, 20-17, in favor of the Colts). However, I’m not thrilled with the Titans benching Will Levis after his four turnover performance vs. the Bengals on Sunday and being replaced by Mason Rudolph. I’m also not thrilled with this line going down to 3.5.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Colts 55/45 in ATS contests and 70/30 in SU pools).
Los Angeles Rams (-3/-3.5) at New York Jets
Sunday, 1 p.m. ETDon’t look now, but the Rams (8-6) are tied for first place in the NFC West with the Seahawks after winning seven of their last nine games after a 1-4 start. The Jets (4-10) have been one of the biggest disappointments in the league after such high hopes; however, they’ve usually been right in most of their games before coming up short. Aaron Rodgers and the offense finally showed the potential everyone expected in putting up 32 points last week, with Davante Adams also having his best game since being traded from the Raiders. The Jets have nothing to lose, so I expect another close shootout and love the +3.5, but I will still take the Jets +3.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Jets +3.5 or +3 EVEN (pool play: Jets 60/40 in ATS contests, even higher at +3.5, but Rams still 60/40 in SU pools).
Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ETThis is the best matchup in the afternoon slate between division co-leaders. The Vikings (12-2) continue their surprising campaign and have caught the Lions atop the NFC North. The Seahawks have been more inconsistent but are still tied for the NFC West lead with the Rams. The Seahawks let us down in our teasers in Week 15, but I’m back on them as they’re not as bad as they showed vs. the Packers, plus the Vikings usually play tighter games despite convincingly beating the Falcons and Bears the last two weeks. Still, the number is too short for me to take the Seahawks ATS, but we again tease them up over a touchdown in our “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio.”
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Seahawks +9 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Seahawks 55/45 in ATS contest, higher if somehow offered +3.5, but Vikings 65/35 in SU pools.
San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins (pick ’em)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ETThe advance line on this game was Dolphins -2.5 last week, but now it’s down to pick-’em as both teams see their playoff chances fading fast. It is pretty much a coin-flip any way we look at it, so I guess I’ll say that I’ll add the dog if the line goes back into the “teaser zone” at 1.5, but otherwise, I’ll pass and just follow the other two afternoon games.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Pass for now (pool play: Dolphins 55/45 in all SU and ATS contests).
Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ETDoes either team want to win this game and get a lower draft pick? We’ll see how much effort these teams put forth (and I’m not thrilled with some of the coaching decisions by Antonio Pierce for our adopted hometown Raiders), but since this is pretty much a coin-flip, I can’t resist teasing the Jaguars through the key numbers of 3 and 7 to +7.5, especially since this team seems to give more of an honest effort week in and week out.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Jaguars +7.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Jaguars 55/45 in all SU and ATS contests).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ETThe Cowboys came through for us against the Panthers (and should have covered against the Bengals on the prior Monday night), but I’m not fading the Buccaneers (8-6) at this short number, as they’ve impressed me in their current four-game winning streak after losing their four prior games in a tougher stretch of their schedule (Ravens, Falcons, Chiefs, 49ers) to take over the lead in the NFC South.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Buccaneers 55/45 in ATS contests and 75/25 in SU pools).
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-14.5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ETThe Packers (10-4) are probably relegated to an NFC wild-card spot as they’re two games behind the Lions and Vikings with three games to play. I got burned fading them in teasers with the Seahawks on Sunday night, but I can’t pass up taking the Saints – who took the Commanders to the final gun – getting two full touchdowns. With Derek Carr still out, we’re still waiting to see if the Saints go with Spencer Rattler or Jake Haener, but just like last week against Washington, I’m fine with either.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Saints +14 (pool play: Saints 60/40 in ATS contests, but Packers still at least 90/10 in SU pools).
